NFL Week One Review, Week Two Preview
NFC North nears panic buttons, AFC and NFC West undefeated
Note: I quite typically write about politics in this space, so if that’s what you’re used to seeing, I’m going to be mixing in a significant amount of football for the sake of my mental health. There may be politics moving forward, but it’ll be football for the foreseeable future.
Content note: You can hear more of my football takes on The Tim Anderson Podcast every week, as well as periodically on Fan Speak North.
Week one predictions are always weird, but this year seems to be suffering even more from a lack of clarity in the NFL. Traditionally good teams, teams predicted to do well, seemed to struggle this week. None more so than the Green Bay Packers, who fell dismally to the New Orleans Saints 38–3. For all of the offseason talk and problems, then the belief that Rodgers was back and all would be OK, Green Bay getting shellacked in a neutral site game against a Saints team that really shouldn’t be what many would consider to be elite this year was the highlight of the week in a week of disappointments. The Jaguars’ new look got beat badly by Houston, Buffalo got handled by a Steelers team that looked rough on offense throughout the game, Washington’s revamped offense had a rough day as they lose QB Ryan Fitzpatrick and WR Curtis Samuel, San Francisco let off the gas too early on a terrible Detroit team, Minnesota was horrendously sloppy all day and nearly overcame it only to lose in overtime to Cincinnati, and Tennessee lost a brutal game at home to Arizona.
When it was all said and done, the NFC North was the only division to lose all four of their openers. Two losses were expected, with an expectedly incomplete Chicago Bears team going to Los Angeles to play a very good Rams team and Detroit hosting another very talented team in San Francisco. Minnesota and Green Bay, however, were favored in their games against Cincinnati and New Orleans. Minnesota amassed 17 total penalties in a game that they definitely didn’t deserve to win, but were also inexplicably put behind the 8-ball by a day of terrible officiating with a fumble ruling late that could be described kindly as “controversial.”
Green Bay saw their Hall of Fame QB put up arguably the worst game of his career only going 15 for 28 with 133 yards and 2 interceptions. Their running game was completely eradicated with no single back even going over 20 yards. Their typically elite all-around HB Aaron Jones didn’t even break 10 yards for the day.
Perhaps more significant for Green Bay was the complete defensive incompetence deep from the Packers’ secondary. Picking up where they left off in the NFC Championship game when they got their doors blown off by the eventual Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Packers allowed several plays to get behind them while generating next to no pass rush. The Packers couldn’t generate anything on either side of the ball.
It does get easier for Green Bay, though. They get to stay at Lambeau this week for a Monday Night Football game against the hapless Detroit Lions who just lost their top corner for the year, as generous as it is to say that Jeff Okudah is someone’s top corner. With Detroit’s inability to stop any phase of any game, Green Bay should see plenty of opportunities to rebound on offense. Detroit’s offense, while slightly better, should also provide Green Bay a chance to test some new looks in a game situation and try to get some pressure on the passer.
With all of this said, if Green Bay loses on Monday night, there is a legitimate possibility that the whole operation falls apart. This is a game that the Packers absolutely should not lose, and with the depth questions they have on defense and the offensive line, a loss to Detroit would be catastrophic to both team morale and the fan support of the team. Unlike most teams, Green Bay’s fans have an expectation of success while their starters are on the field that has been supported with success at almost every turn. Seeing those starters fail could show cracks in an organization that has had widely-known structural concerns masked by legitimate Hall of Fame quarterback play for 30 years. The bottom line is that it’s not time for Green Bay to panic yet, but the conditions are right for absolute panic.
On the opposite side of the spectrum, perhaps the most impressive teams in the league are playing in both West divisions. Kansas City put together a game to put away the AFC North-favorite Cleveland Browns, Denver did what they needed to against a mediocre Giants team, Vegas upset the Baltimore hospital squad, and Los Angeles managed to take out a Washington team that might have the best defense in their conference. In the NFC West, Seattle showed that they have an incredibly dangerous deep passing game even if Indianapolis’ secondary is fairly suspect, San Francisco raced out to a big lead against a Detroit team that made it look closer than it was, Arizona dog-walked a really tough but traditionally inconsistent Tennessee squad, and the Rams looked cold-blooded against a Chicago team with some serious question marks.
For my money, the best of the bunch was the Rams. Stafford looked comfortable in HC Sean McVay’s system, using his arm to make Chicago’s defense pay for mistakes on numerous play-action operations and pre-snap movements. Over the last couple of years, it’s been LA’s inconsistent ability to push the ball downfield that has significantly hindered McVay’s ability to really open his playbook. Installing a veteran QB, with a massive arm and ability to improvise with knowledge of most defenses, instantly makes LA a contender to win the conference and makes them a legitimate title contender.
Their biggest competition in the conference may well come from their own division. I’ve been on the record for months that I think San Francisco is the best team in the NFC, and that their defense is the best along with Washington’s. LA put themselves in that conversation this week, but I still want to see them do it on a week-in and week-out basis against teams that aren’t starting Andy Dalton at QB.
Speaking of Andy Dalton, the Bears have a problem on their hands. It’s clear that Dalton is just keeping the seat warm for Justin Fields, but even in a situation where the Bears hypothetically had no other questions, adding more ways for Chicago to lose this season feels like a bad idea for a head coach that has been on the hot seat since double-doink.
The Bears QB situation is one of a few that feel particularly tenuous after week one. Along with them, it’s clear that Ben Roethlisberger just doesn’t have any arm left. He’s throwing balloons out there for Pittsburgh, and it’s only a matter of time before that comes back to bite them. The aforementioned Rodgers was benched for second-year QB Jordan Love, Atlanta’s Matt Ryan looked atrocious and, having taken Kyle Pitts with the fourth pick in the draft instead of Mac Jones or Justin Fields, they’re left without another option for the future. Ryan Tannehill did his best Kirk Cousins impersonation for Tennessee, and with no running game to speak of, they fell haplessly to a Cardinals team that looked better than I think they are.
Causing additional problems for Tennessee, superstar tank HB Derrick Henry appears to be showing perhaps some wear and tear from two straight seasons of extreme use. Over the last two years, Henry has amassed an eye-popping 782 carries, something most backs won’t see in five years in most modern NFL systems. He looked a bit plodding and indecisive in week one, which could also be indicative of some offensive line issues rather than Henry taking a step back, but it’s something to keep an eye on as the season moves forward as his Tennessee’s success is going to be largely tied to Henry’s ability to move the ball.
For week two, here’s what I’m watching:
Who takes a step?
The NFL is about consistency, and one week is a poor measure, especially coming out of a year with no fans and a preseason with a lot of changes. There was a lot about the NFL this week that made me think we weren’t getting an accurate representation of who many teams were and the adjustment to the regular season was proving difficult for some.
Minnesota @ Arizona (-2.5)
Minnesota played a sloppy game last week, looked completely lost and uncreative in a game they still should have won despite all of that. For all of that, it takes an incredibly talented team to get back into an NFL game with as many mistakes as Minnesota made, and they’re a team that’s still dangerous when they’re not playing well.
Arizona showed that they can run with some really good teams by blowing out Tennessee last week. The question turns to if this was the beginning of a run for the Cardinals, or if this was a one-week fluke taking advantage of a Titans team that hasn’t quite put things together. Based on the struggles of Tennessee to run the ball, I’m a little concerned Arizona didn’t get Tennessee’s best shot, and I think that the problems Arizona was facing coming into this season still have yet to be tested.
Make no mistake, if Minnesota plays clean football, they can move the ball and get pressure on the QB. I would expect to see a more aggressive game plan from Klint Kubiak and Mike Zimmer, and I think it’ll be a good test for both teams. But the result of this game will either confirm the results of Arizona beating Tennessee, or it will show that Minnesota is a team that can be competitive when they put everything together. Some of those questions for Arizona may remain if Minnesota comes out flat again.
Buffalo (-2.5) @ Miami
Buffalo gets a solid Miami team on the road in week two following an underwhelming game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. After Miami’s nose-hair win against New England, it does feel a bit like this is Buffalo’s division to lose despite their loss, but Miami can challenge that idea with a win on Sunday.
The major questions for Buffalo are going to be if their offense can move the ball against another really solid defense this week. Pittsburgh did a good job of limiting the Bills’ big plays and putting a cap on how badly Stefon Diggs could hurt them downfield, and I expect Miami to do the same thing with a veteran secondary who is more than capable of making life difficult for talented WRs.
For Miami’s offense, they’re facing a Buffalo defense looking to bounce back after some missed opportunities against a Pittsburgh offense that didn’t really look like world-beaters. Rookie wide receiver Jaylen Waddle is going to have plenty of opportunity to build on a successful outing, and QB Tua Tagovailoa is looking primed to break out if he can get the ball into the hands of his playmakers. Buffalo’s defense presents a number of challenges, but Miami’s offense is more than capable of navigating them. If there’s a matchup on the schedule that could turn into a shootout, this is probably it.
Panic Button Games
Cincinnati @ Chicago (-4)
Chicago’s panic button isn’t for their season, but it is for their defense. They’re playing a Cincinnati team that can get after the QB, but will absolutely challenge a Chicago defense that appears to have lost their teeth over the last few years. They have had trouble rushing the passer, they’ve had trouble stopping the run especially late, and they’ve had trouble covering WRs in man coverage. Sean McVay and the Rams absolutely abused this secondary on Sunday Night Football, and McVay acolyte Zac Taylor brings a young QB and arguably better wide receivers to the game this week.
If Chicago can’t put it together, you may well see Justin Fields, but it’s more likely you start to hear some panic about whether their defense is up to the task in a division with two offenses that struggled in week one but can easily turn it on at any time.
Kansas City (-2.5) @ Baltimore
Baltimore’s injury report looks like a CVS receipt, and losing two major players in your secondary two weeks before playing the Kansas City Chiefs and the best offense in football is not something many would wish on a football team. Baltimore just struggled and lost against a Raiders team that hardly looked good on Monday Night, and now they draw a short week with more injuries and poor pass protection against a team that’s competing to continue to build a dynasty.
Lamar Jackson needs to take care of the football, and the offense needs to find a way to put up more points. This is going to be a game that’s potentially a shootout, and if you’re Baltimore, that’s probably your best hope to have a chance in this game. What’s more likely is that this is a morale-crushing, “what could have been” blowout by the Chiefs, leaving them as the sole favorites in the AFC for the remainder of the season. If Baltimore can’t find a way to put things together for this game, the point of no return for what we thought could be a talented Baltimore team may be sooner than we’d like to admit. If they’re getting blown out at halftime, there’s a chance that their season is over before the end of the game.
Green Bay (-10) @ Detroit
I don’t think Green Bay is going to lose this game. The bigger concern is that they don’t win by enough to be convincing. If Aaron Rodgers goes out and struggles against what is arguably the worst team in the league, if the Packers can’t get a running game going, and if their defense doesn’t show up again, the Packers can still win and end up hitting the panic button. There is no r-e-l-a-x that you can describe to fans to stem the tide of Packers faithful if the Packers struggle against Detroit.
The bottom line is that Aaron Rodgers needs to shake off the rust. With the drama of the offseason and the lack of work in the preseason, he looked like he hadn’t played football since January. Davante Adams was stifled as a result, and the offense looked lost. This is all to say nothing of the complete inability of the Green Bay offensive line to protect the quarterback, as Rodgers seemed to be under pressure from the snap of every play. The Packers’ offense has a lot of questions to answer, and they’ll have a great opportunity to work out the kinks against the hapless Lions, but if it goes wrong it will go wrong quickly.
Defensively, the Lions’ offense poses very little threat to Green Bay. With that said, if Green Bay struggles to get pressure, and the Lions are able to move the ball or if they have short fields all day like New Orleans did, this game will become a problem for Green Bay.
The panic button looms.
The Last Thought
Like I’ve said multiple times, I think that the results of week one aren’t representative of where the league will be by the end of the regular season. There’s a long way to go, and there’s a lot of changes that can and will be made between now and then.
Primarily, I think teams like Buffalo and Minnesota and Tennessee are better than week one indicated. These are talented teams that will be able to move the ball and get stops. I think the same thing of Green Bay. It’s just a matter of when they get things turned around. It has to happen soon. On the other side, I think teams like Las Vegas, Cincinnati, Arizona, and Houston are not as good as week one made them look. These teams feel like they’re going to come back to earth.
Only time will tell.